For about 10 to 12 days now, the models have been hinting about a disturbed weather area in the Caribbean Sea and the possibility of some tropical development there.
Atlantic Invest 94L
The GFS, typically a non-reliable tropical model, was the first to suggest a cyclone near Florida way back around May 10th. Now that we have gotten closer to the event, a few other models are now hinting that a tropical system is indeed likely.
GFS Forecast from May 10th, valid May 22nd
The good news, from what I am seeing in the satellite loops and the upper-air data, is that steering currents will keep this storm away from the Florida panhandle. And, as with most weak tropical systems, it will be heavily weighted on the eastern side. That just means, the wind and rain will hold east of any circulation center. The latest HWRF run brings this Invest up to tropical storm status quickly tonight, while the European mainly keeps it as an open wave, and the GFS still maintains some weak center.
Model Suite
