Dorian formed and faded rather quickly last week, mostly due to a very dry column of air over the tropical Atlantic Ocean. The remnant low of that cyclone is now well west of the drier air and entering a region of “slightly” favorable weather. However, numerous upper lows, increased wind shear and the low’s track all point to a rather weak cyclone in the week ahead. Outside of Dorian regaining tropical status, I give the week ahead a ZERO percent chance of seeing a named storm.
Most of the eastern Atlantic is still dominated by dust and dry air, and it is still a little too early to look that far east for any major waves to cause concern. Closer to home in the Caribbean and Gulf, a series of meridional jet patterns has essentially shut the Gulf off for immediate development. “IF” anything were to form over the next 5 to 10 days, it would be a close in developing storm from a lingering trough or front across the USA East Coast.
The MJO is in the middle of a napping phase ( a pause or asleep, if you will) so no immediate threats look to be imminent with pulses traveling the globe.
Again, it is still July, and although we have had 4 named storms, they all have been relatively weak and short-lived. Let’s hope that theme continues until mid-t0-late August.