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Floridians must be scratching their head this weekend, after seeing “Alberto” named, while the more vigorous-more weather producing storm on Oct 10, 2011 that crashed into central Florida was not.  This is an objective look at why that October storm was not named, yet this weekend’s swirl was.

First of all, there is a definitive closed circulation with Alberto, unassociated with cold air aloft.  The system that hit Florida in Oct. 2011 never attained a closed circulation and was purely associated with upper-level cold air.  The key distinction between the two cases is the cold air aloft.

2011 Florida Gale Center vs. Tropical Storm Alberto

I attended a tropical meteorology conference this past April, and this Florida gale was the topic of much debate.   Certainly it was much more vigorous than Alberto has become.  Again, that is due to cold-air forcing aloft, as the cold air fueled very strong thunderstorms. The storms produced thousands of lightning strikes, some hail and damaging wind gusts.  It was almost akin to a winter low pressure system with cold fronts.  And, as the storms around the low intensified in the colder upper air, a brief low-level swirl did actually take place on radar, just prior to landfall.

Key points to keep in mind:  purely tropical systems actually have warmer air aloft, do not produce hail and almost have no lightning activity associated with them.  It’s a backwards way of thinking, but the physical process of warming aloft actually forces air down on the perimeter of a tropical cyclone, where it is then returned vertically in the center of circulation.

Wind Flow Process Inside Tropical Cyclones

Let me point out that there is quite a bit of subjectivity that goes into naming a tropical cyclone.  It is not up to the discretion of just one person at the National Hurricane Center, rather their entire team of meteorologists, to examine the data and make a decision.  They spend many hours pouring over radar and satellites to make a very informed and complete decision.

After seeing the data first-hand at that tropical conference, I think the Hurricane Center indeed got the call right in “not naming” the October 2011 gale.

As expected, the second day of these conferences tend to turn a bit more on the technical side.  One of the reasons is that so many graduate students are submitting their work for the first time in hopes of being approved for a Ph.D. in Meteorology.  Regardless, you can still filter through the math and find plenty to learn and discuss at these meetings.

Most of today’s sessions that I attended centered around forecasting techniques, mostly of the hindsight.  Essentially, you look back at past meteorological events from a thermodynamic aspect, and then you translate your findings to weather events when they occur to see if indeed the technique pans out.  They were no “earth-shattering” revelations today at the conference, but here are some overall observations:

1. Tropical cyclone genesis remains a poorly understood phenomena
2. Tropical cyclone genesis is dependant on a number of weather factors beyond just a warm ocean
3. Dry air and shear are still two of the main drivers in tropical cyclone formations.  Their presence can dictate death to developing tropical lows
4. Pulsations in storm clouds around tropical waves are necessary to generate enough wind convergence to help in cyclone genesis
5. Modeling of storms is still becoming accurate, but only when the models have time to react to storms that are days away.  When a cyclone forms close in to the coastline, their error increases quite a bit

I also attended a seminar on Catastrophe Risk Modeling in the afternoon.  It was fascinating science to see how insurance companies model tropical cyclones at landfall and estimate how much insurance loses could be.  This is a very important aspect in today’s economy, as it relates to business re-insurance.  That is to say, sometimes you may realize you don’t have adequate coverage due to impending weather, and you want to add on to your policy to cover more than expected loses.  One business out there doing this now, FlagstoneRE, showed  us an example of how one storm can generate over 4000 possible insurance outcomes.  These risk modelers can then give a range of expected loses to businesses based on these projections!

Also of note, the particitpation of the Florida Catastrophic Storm Risk Management Center.  They painted an ominous tone to the room by reminding everyone that Florida is still repaying on re-insurance from the 2005 storm season and any additional storms this year would financially threaten current insurance in the state.

As part of our “continuing education” as meteorologists, we attend weather conferences on an annual basis.  This year, I have chosen to attend the 30th Annual AMS Tropical Meteorology Conference.  Obviously, that should be no surprise since I work in Florida and we have to endure hurricane season 6 months out of the year.  Today’s sessions centered on track forecasts and climate change.  Here is a highlight of day 1:

1. Atlantic Basin actually has one of the lowest tropical cyclone genesis regions when compared to basins around the globe.
2. Amount of global major hurricanes have remained flat since 1980.
3. “Best Track” intensity forecasts are improving slightly, while overall track forecasts continue to improve yearly.
4. Climate change “could” play a role in the number of Category 4 or 5 hurricanes over the coming years.
5. Based on just numbers alone, the Gulf of Mexico has fewer but MUCH STRONGER tropical cyclones
6. Climate models, right now, suggest a short-term decrease in Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclones.  However, long term research still needs to be conducted.
7. With a warmer climate forecast by climate models, the potential for heavy rain event tropical cyclones is increasing.
8. Greatest tropical message to overcome: probablistic forecast vs. deterministic forecast.  That is to say, we as broadcasters, need to improve our message on expected weather conditions to you, the viewer.

Some of the greatest scientists in the world are gathered at this conference in Jacksonville, FL over the next few days, and I look forward to bringing you more about what they have to offer from a research standpoint.  Make sure you follow me on twitter, as I live tweet some of the highlights of the event (http://twitter.com/jimwxgator)

A large 11,000 acre fire several hundred miles away (Columbia County) is causing all kinds of smoke problems across northern Florida.  On Saturday, a combination of a temperature inversion and an easterly wind helped transport huge amounts of smoke across our sky.

I went back and did a little meteorological analysis on the smoke from Saturday, and here is what I found.   A large temperature inversion in the atmosphere basically trapped the smoke pollutants at ground level all day Saturday.  In that inversion layer, an easterly wind provided a good transport mechanism for the smoke across our sky.   The inversion was due to a cold front passage on Saturday morning and that inversion eliminated most of the vertical mixing of the atmosphere.

Here is the Saturday morning atmospheric sounding from Tallahassee followed by a snapshot of the Panama City Beach tower cam that afternoon

Tallahassee, FL weather sounding

WJHG-TV Tower Cam

Doppler Radar from Jacksonville, FL on Saturday also detected large smoke plumes from another fire in Clay County, along with the big Columbia County burn.  Those two burns combined to make a smoky combination for most of northern Florida.

Thankfully, winds have shifted a bit and the inversion has worked itself away from the Florida panhandle.  But, with any new or existing fire threats to our east, any wind switch in the coming days ahead could bring more smoke to our sky, especially to areas along the Big Bend region of the state.

Courtesy: Panhandle Helicopter, Panama City Beach

The pictures have generated nearly 1000 responses on Facebook alone!  They are awe-inspiring and yet freaky at the same time.  To me, based on just the pictures, they are part of a process known as “Kelvin–Helmholtz instability”.

How do these clouds get their appearance? Basically, the heavier (or more dense) fog clouds are literally picked up and carried vertically in the atmosphere by higher wind speeds just off the water’s surface.  The end result is the “wavy” motion or appearance of the clouds.  In our case, the air was lifted up and over beach side condos, giving the clouds a look of almost crashing into the buildings!

The look quite ominous when seen in person, but really are non-severe in nature.  Earlier in the winter, a series of these same type of clouds was spotted around Birmingham, AL.

Kelvin-Helmholtz Clouds in Birmingham, courtesy ABC 33/40

If you want to read more about the science of Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds, you can read about it via Wikipedia

Longing for some surf  here in Florida?  Head west to Hawaii, where the annual North Shore swells are rolling in.  Surf forecast holding in the 8 to 15 foot range, with high surf advisories in effect!

Sunset Beach, North Shore, HI

A December cold front brought some impressive rainfall totals for the 27th!  Keep in mind, the rain only lasted about 3 hours in a few areas, with the heaviest arriving around midnight.

• Panama City Beach International:  .91″
• WJHG-TV:  1.7″
• The Hombre Golf Club: 3.2″
• Chief Meteorologist Chris Smith, Inlet Beach:  .94″
• Jean Weeks, Blountstown:  .70″
• Dave Fouth, Hogtown Bayou:  1.5″
• Marth Stiteler, Clarksville:  .63″
• Sam Sill, Southport:  1.03″
• Lori Manning, DeFuniak Springs:  1.95″

A “Full” Lunar Eclipse will take place this coming Saturday. Unfortunately, only Asia and Australia will be able to see this one in it’s totality.   Totality will take place from 8:06 a.m. CST  to 8:57am CST.  On the east coast of the United States, there is still a chance you can see the beginning of the eclipse at moonset.

December 2011 Lunar Eclipse Visibility Map

A lunar eclipse is when the moon passes behind the Earth and the Earth blocks the sun’s rays.  This is the second of two full lunar eclipses this year.  The last one occurred on June 15!

Hole Punch Cloud in the Atlantic Ocean

I came across this cloud formation on Wednesday after a casual glance at the visible satellite data.   This unique feature is known as a “Hole Punch Cloud”.  Usually, they are caused by jets, as their exhaust changes the evaporation and condensation process in clouds.   These clouds have been seen anywhere from the United States to Russia.

Over the last hour or so, I have seen one large jet contrail near the center of this cloud feature, which lends credence to the fact this is indeed a hole punch cloud.  My friend, Meteorologist Brad Panovich, captured this zoom of the hole punch earlier this morning!

My friends at the National Weather Service Office in Mobile, AL have published a very nice article on hole punch clouds, complete with pictures and the meteorology behind it. You will for sure want to check it out: